#bearish divergence

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按照 $BTC 当前价格区间计算，2h后周线收线，其MACD会形成类似图中模拟的那种“即将死叉确认背离”的极限状态... 后续行情只要不是超强的多头趋势绝地反击，那么这个周线死叉及二次顶背离就是不可避免的了... 听起来有点绝望了是吧？但我找了一下过往牛市顶部区间的案例，其实死叉确认形成的那一周， 周线要么是小阳线，要么就是连续2周的极限反弹，2017年更恶心，最后的冲顶加速上涨就发生在死叉之后... 所以目前留给我们的剧本总体上来说就是下周反弹，但强弱未知，然后9月的整体走势是空头趋势... 落实到交易思路上来说，下周短线做多可以搏反弹，9月以后找个高点，先低倍空起来，不破新高就不走，搞不好就是一张可以拿到下轮牛初的祖传空单... ---------------EN--------------- Based on the current Bitcoin price range, the weekly candle close in two hours will form a critical state on the MACD, a "bearish crossover confirming divergence" similar to the one simulated in the chart. Unless there's a super-strong bullish rebound, this weekly MACD crossover and a second bearish divergence will be unavoidable. What Happens Next? Sounds a bit hopeless, right? But I checked historical cases from past bull market tops. The week the crossover was confirmed, the weekly candle was either a small green one, or there were two consecutive weeks of extreme bounces. In 2017, it was even more infuriating—the final parabolic top happened after the death cross. So, the overall scenario for us is a bounce next week, but with unknown strength, followed by a bearish trend for the entirety of September. The Trading Strategy Putting this into a trading strategy: next week, you can take a short-term long position to play the bounce. Then, sometime in September, find a good entry point to open a low-leverage short. Don't close it unless we break a new high—it could very well become a "generational short" that you hold until the next bull market begins.
BTC市场震荡，巨鲸减仓引发价格波动· 384 条信息
#BTC #Bitcoin #MACD bearish crossover #bearish divergence #trading strategy